Insights · Case Study · Planning model

Building Initial Inventory for a 6,000-SKU Location

2 min readBy Strahinja Jovanović

How to build an initial inventory plan for 6,000 SKUs with no history to calculate from

The Challenge

A new location needed an opening inventory plan for roughly 6,000 products. There was no sales history, because the location did not exist yet.

That leaves two default failure modes, and most openings pick one of them:

  1. Copy another location's stock list one to one. Fast, and wrong in every way that the new catchment differs from the old one.
  2. Let every category manager guess independently. This produces a plan nobody can audit, where the total is the sum of a dozen private opinions.

Both feel like decisions. Neither leaves anything behind you can correct later.

The Solution

We built the plan out of explicit, visible assumptions instead of hidden ones.

Every product's opening quantity traced back to a stated assumption: comparable location, category index, expected footfall, assortment role. Each assumption sat in the open where it could be challenged before opening and corrected after.

The mechanics were right on day one. Case packs, MOQs, supplier lead times and shelf-life constraints were built into the plan rather than discovered during the first week.

Launch planning is a master data stress test. Wrong case sizes, duplicated SKUs, products mapped to the wrong category and delisted items still active all surface here, and it is much cheaper to find them before the doors open.

The Results

Key results

  • Opening plan delivered for approximately 6,000 SKUs with no historical sales data
  • Assumptions stayed visible and correctable, so the first weeks of real data improved the model instead of embarrassing it
  • Case packs, MOQs and lead times correct from day one
  • Master data errors surfaced before opening rather than during it

The first month of real data settled an argument that would otherwise have run for a year. One national opening plan would have been wrong almost everywhere. Regions did not want the same assortment, fulfillment hubs did not have the same delivery reliability, and customers in each of them did not buy on the same rhythm. The expensive lines with short shelf life exposed all three differences at once, because on a product that expires there is no room to be wrong twice.

What you can apply

When opening a location, avoid the two defaults: copying another location one to one, or letting every category manager guess independently. Write the assumptions down where they can be argued with. A plan built from visible assumptions gets better the moment real data arrives. A plan built from private opinions just gets defended.

About this project

  • Service: Planning model, new location launch
  • Industry: Retail and q-commerce
  • Scale: Approximately 6,000 SKUs, no sales history
  • Duration: Ongoing engagement
The decision this leaves you with

Write the assumptions behind every opening quantity down where they can be argued with, instead of copying another location or collecting private guesses.


Want this run on your numbers?

The Cash Scan turns your own data into four documents in seven days: where your working capital is sitting, which SKUs are costing you sales, and your planned media budget translated into required units by week. $1,500, credited in full against the Sprint, and findings in seven days or you do not pay.

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